People power beat Big Oil again this week when Shell announced that it was cancelling its Carmon Creek tar sands project. Shell said the decision to cancel the project (and thus take a US$2 billion hit to its bottom line) “reflects current uncertainties, including the lack of infrastructure to move Canadian crude oil to global commodity markets.”
In other words: the massive public opposition to tar
sands pipelines means Shell doesn’t think it would be able to get the
oil to market.
Canadians have grown accustomed to seeing pipeline protests on the evening news, but a new report
from Oil Change International takes a data-driven approach to show how
people power is successfully stepping in where governments are falling
short.
In the case of the Alberta tar sands, people power has
created circumstances where no new growth will be profitable in the
sector—unless oil companies can overcome a growing movement that starts
on the front lines with First Nations and impacted communities, and
extends across the country, the continent and the world.
Faced with low oil prices and limited pipeline space
due to public opposition, the oil industry has cut its growth forecast
for the tar sands in half.
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
But even that lower growth projection will require new
pipelines to get more oil out of the western sedimentary basin, which
is home to the tar sands and the Bakken oil fields. That won’t be easy.
The Keystone XL and Northern Gateway pipelines are politically dead, and
the Transmountain (Kinder Morgan) and Energy East pipelines are facing
massive opposition.
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. The yellow and orange bands are pipelines that don’t yet exist.
In Canada, the new Liberal government has committed to
strengthening the pipeline review process, including the introduction
of a climate test that will account for upstream greenhouse gas
emissions. This is good news because building new pipelines would enable
a massive expansion of tar sands production that is incompatible with a safe global climate.
Any government serious about climate change must
confront the scientific reality that there is no room for major new
fossil fuel infrastructure that locks in high levels of carbon pollution
for decades to come.
Stephen Harper was an unabashed bully on behalf of the
oil companies, but now that Canada has a new government, we have an
opportunity to turn this around. The oil industry is, however, still
very powerful and no matter how well-meaning the new Liberal government
of Justin Trudeau is, oil companies won’t seize the opportunity to turn
away from an oil-driven economy and embrace a renewable energy future
without relentless pressure from below.
So let’s get back to work.
Keith Stewart is the head of the Greenpeace Canada energy campaign.