The year 2017 may become a historic milestone where the
visceral effects of global heating - extreme storms and wildfires -
finally reach public consciousness.
Homeowners Access Hurricane Irma Damage - 12 Sep, 2017
Humans have known about the effects of carbon in the atmosphere for two centuries, since the work of
Joseph Fourier at the French Academy of Science. A century ago, Swedish chemist,
Svante Arrhenius, calculated
that doubling atmospheric CO2 would increase Earth's average
temperature by 5-6°C, which now appears accurate. In 1981, Dr. James
Hansen wrote the
first NASA global temperature analysis,
and in 1991, the UN convened the first climate conference in Berlin. As
of today, none of this has significantly altered the actions of human
society enough to actually reduce carbon emissions.
In the last few years, we have witnessed more wildfires and
violent storms that are directly linked to global heating. This year,
communities around the world have experienced a dramatic increase in
climate-related natural disasters, costing thousands of lives and
billions of dollars, and leaving behind devastation.
Year of the fire
I've lived on the west coast of Canada for 45 years, and
during that time, I've witnessed a few days of smoke from wildfires in
the interior fir and cedar forests. For the past two summers, however,
the entire coast has been blanketed in thick smoke through July and
August, the summer sun barely piercing the haze. Citizens experience
respiratory problems, tourism is disrupted, and firefighting teams from
the northern and southern hemispheres now routinely trade support teams
in alternate seasons.
In February, the North Pole experienced a staggering +30°C
temperature anomaly, unprecedented in modern record-keeping. The melting
permafrost releases methane gas, a greenhouse-gas far more powerful
than CO2. The Arctic contains about
1.8 trillion tons of carbon,
stored as methane, and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
has not yet accounted for this significant positive feedback of global
heating. The 2017 data so far shows that over the last decade, Earth is
heating about twice as fast as IPCC scientists had predicted.
Grass Fire in the Astrakhan Nature Reserve, Russia - 13 Mar, 2015
This extra heat means drier grasslands and forests,
resulting in more frequent, more intense fires. Warmer temperatures add
moisture to the atmosphere, which we might assume would dampen fires,
but it has the opposite effect. Increased precipitation during the
winter means that grasslands grow more. Then, during the drier summers,
this extra growth becomes added fuel to the fires. Even a fraction of a
degree increase to winter temperatures allows insects like pine beetles
to move toward the poles, into boreal forests, killing more trees that
also add fuel to fires.
During the summer of 2017, fires raged across Europe,
killing hundreds, devastating communities, and leading the European
Union to declare a state of emergency. Portugal suffered the worst fire
season ever recorded, scorching almost 520,000 hectares of forest. It
was six times the annual average for recent years, and killed over 100
people. The Interior Minister, Constanca Urbano de Sousa, remarked that
she had wanted to quit after 64 people were killed in June wildfires and
after investigators had chastised the official response. When October
fires killed 42 more citizens, de Sousa resigned.
Meanwhile, four people died from fires in the Galicia
region of northwest Spain. Fires in Croatia destroyed homes and other
buildings in the village of Podstrana, and the historic town of Split.
Along the Dalmatian coastline of the Adriatic Sea, grasslands and woods
burned, along with homes, cars, and public buildings. On the southern
Adriatic coast, in Montenegro, fires burned through the historic Lustica
Peninsula town of Tivat, which had to be evacuated. Montenegro,
unprepared for the scale of fires, asked NATO for firefighters,
aircraft, and assistance with evacuations.
In Italy this year, some 900 wildfires burned over 130,000
hectares. Residents and tourists were forced to evacuate parts of Rome
and Naples, including Mount Vesuvius national park and the Castelfusano
coastal pine forest, south of Rome. A beach resort on the island of
Sicily had to be evacuated. This is a typical impact of global heating.
Italy experienced 30% less rain and 30% more wildfires. In July, fires
burned near Castagniers and Nice, in southeast France and on the French
island of Corsica. In southwest Turkey, fires destroyed 40 homes as
communities evacuated.
July was the hottest month in 130 years of Moscow's
recorded climate history, and smoke from fires blanketed the region.
Within a few days in July, fires burned some 150,000 hectares during an
historic heat wave and drought.
In May, under record high temperatures and dry
conditions, China and Mongolia grew even hotter and drier, leading to
some of the largest fires on Earth in recent history. Fires burned
through the Greater Hinggan Mountains, threatening the Hanma Nature
Reserve and the city of Hulun Buir. In early July, Mongolia's National
Emergency Management Agency fought 11 major forest fires across northern
Mongolia, exhausting their supply of fire extinguishing equipment.
President Khaltmaa Battulga and Prime Minister Jargaltulga Erdenebat
prohibited people from entering the forest areas, called an emergency
meeting, and instructed their engineers to attempt creating artificial
rainfall. Legions of Mongolian citizens, communicating through social
media, joined the fire brigades, but by the end of July, they faced more
than 20 major fires, some threatening the capital at Ulan Bator.
Fires in western North America, broke records in Alaska,
Canada, Washington, Oregon, and California. The Seattle region
experienced a +10°C temperature anomaly in August as fires burned
through Washington state forests. Wildfires ravaged Oregon and killed 30
people in northern California, destroying some 3,500 homes and
businesses in California's wine region, obliterating neighborhoods.
Throughout the western United States, over a million hectares burned
this summer.
Santa Rosa, California, fire devastation - 13 Oct, 2017
"Climate change is turning up the dial on everything," said
LeRoy Westerling at the University of California. "Dry periods become
more extreme, wet periods become more extreme, and fires are increasing.
The ecosystem is changing."
Extreme Storms
Global heating has increased ocean temperatures, adding
energy to storms. By October, the year 2017 already approached the
all-time record for both total measured storm energy and accumulated
damage. This summer, hurricanes Nate, Harvey, Irma, and Maria pounded
the Caribbean and Southeastern US. According to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, the US has experienced 15 weather disasters
this year that cost more than $1 billion, an all-time record. A study
from 13 US federal agencies concluded that "extreme weather events have
cost the United States $1.1 trillion since 1980."
Hurricane Harvey Flooding Rescue in Texas - 27 Aug, 2017
Storms have been getting stronger since the mid-1980s. An
analysis of 167 years of data
by the Associated Press found that no 30-year period in history had
seen this many major storms. Typically, North Atlantic ocean
temperatures remain too cool to support hurricane-level storms. This
year, warmer than normal North Atlantic temperatures fueled tropical
storm Ophelia to hurricane status on October 14, as it moved toward
Ireland. Hurricane-force gusts of 192 km/hour hit Ireland, flooding
coastal towns, and causing structural damage, vast power outages, and
two deaths.
The Atlantic coasts of Ireland, England, France, Spain, and
Portugal now face, for the first time, the sustained threat of
hurricanes. Four years ago, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological
Institute predicted that by 2100, global warming would increase the
frequency of hurricane winds in western Europe.
The extreme fires and storms of 2017 signify more than just
a 'new normal'. With each fraction of a degree that Earth's average
temperature increases, these fires and storms will increase in
intensity. The effects of climate change are not linear. A one-degree
increase in temperature will yield about four-times the intensity of
fires and storms. Some evidence suggests that by mid-century, fires and
storms could double in their destructive power.
A
study published in Nature
suggests that limiting global heating to the Paris goal of 2°C is now
"unlikely". The UN now estimates that the median projected global
temperature increase is 3.2°C with a likely range up to 4.9°C and a high
end of 8°C. The "new normal" will be constant change; a growing
intensity of storms, fires, and other extreme weather, for as long as
human carbon emissions continue.
Even if it sounds hopeless, it’s not. We have the chance to act decisively to change our present.
All we need to fix this massive challenge is at our disposal. We just need the courage to come together and make it happen.
Sources and Links:
How climate change is "turning up the dial" on wildfires:
CBS News
"Spain, Portugal Wildfires Kill at Least 39":
weather.com
Forest fires in N. Mongolia:
Xinhua news
Storms: weather and global warming:
MPR News
"C02 Levels 50 Million Years Ago Tell Us About Climate Change Today":
Clean Technica